Below is my latest interpretation of the European and American long-range forecast model output that goes into March.
Despite the sudden stratospheric warming event currently taking place over the Arctic, long-range modeling is not overly impressed with sending any Arctic air masses into the eastern half of the country through early March. This may indeed be correct as the real cold may end up on the other side of the pole or just hang out over the Prairies.
However, I do think that this pattern may lead to some potentially wild weather along the Atlantic coastal region in early March. The modeling does not show this as of yet, but it is still early. We will have to closely watch the trends.
One thing that I am feeling more confident about is that we have likely already seen the worst of winter's cold across eastern North America.
Take this last graphic with a big grain of salt!
***We will be releasing the AccuWeather spring outlook for Canada on Wednesday, February 21st.