Tropical downpours may lead to flooding and travel problems in parts of Texas early this week.
A tropical disturbance associated with a plume of showers and thunderstorms that began to brew over the western Caribbean last weekend is forecast to migrate northwestward into early this week.
"The disturbance is highly unlikely to develop," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
"However, this disturbance will cause flooding rainfall to progress slowly inland from the western part of the Gulf coast," Kottlowski said.
Risk of heavy rainfall, flooding to expand through Tuesday
Enough rain is likely to fall to cause incidents of urban and low-lying area flooding, especially in the swath from Houston, southward to Brownsville, and inland to Austin and San Antonio, Texas.
Motorists in these major metropolitan areas, as well as Port Arthur, Victoria, Corpus Christi, Texas, should anticipate travel difficulties in the coming days.
The Monday commute could be a mess along parts of the Texas and far southwestern Louisiana coasts. More widespread problems may occur across coastal and central Texas by Tuesday.
Motorists are reminded never to drive through flooded roadways as the water may be deeper than it appears and the road surface compromised beneath the water.
Slow-moving tropical downpours have the potential to unload localized rainfall on the order of 6 inches or more where showers and thunderstorms repeat. Should even a tropical depression or weak tropical storm form, rainfall could be even heavier in some communities.
Construction workers excavate and widen Brays Bayou as part of a nearly $500 million flood control project Thursday, March 22, 2018, in Houston. The project, which will widen 21 miles of the bayou and build stormwater detention basins. The project is one of several large-scale flood control projects Houston-area officials are hoping to fully fund and build. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
While much of the rain may fall on Father's Day weekend when many people may have outdoor plans, rainfall is needed over much of the region.
Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions exist over much of Louisiana and central and southeastern Texas, according to the latest United States Drought Monitor. Severe drought exists in some counties of Texas as well.
Beyond early in the new week, the rain may be drawn northward across the Plains and part of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys.
However, another scenario is possible.
"There is a chance the system stalls over southern Texas and northeastern Mexico for several days this week," according to AccuWeather Lead Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker.
Another Harvey is not expected
Even though the area of disturbed weather is originating from the western Caribbean Sea and may organize just off the South Texas coast, a repeat of Harvey is not anticipated with this event, despite the chance of rain farther south and west.
While some heavy rainfall and isolated flooding are likely, this setup will not bring 30-60 inches of rain, like Harvey did. Flooding problems will be much-less intense, much less extensive and much shorter in duration.